Some may see it as creating a new era of international competition in the Horn of Africa - but the real issue is it may appear more of a strategic chessboard than it is.

Following Israel’s recognition of the state of Somaliland, there has been much discussion surrounding why the recognition is taking place now and to what end.

Given that Somaliland is situated in the Horn of Africa, with neighbors such as Ethiopia and Djibouti, the Israeli recognition is, above all, raising eyebrows regarding what is nearby – the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait separates these two bodies of water. This is an economic choke point for shipping heading from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. As such, this is globally considered to be a vitally important trade zone.

The Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized shipping for the last several years in this area. They claimed to do so due to the war in Gaza. Decades ago, moreover, Somali pirates routinely attacked ships off East Africa’s coast.

A new era of international competition in the Horn of Africa

This area is now in the spotlight amid Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Some may see the move as marking the beginning of a new era of international competition in this part of Africa. Many countries are already involved.

Turkey, for instance, has been involved in Somalia and Sudan. The UAE invested in a port in Somaliland. European powers have bases and forces in Djibouti.

However, many of the states in the region are weak or have internal conflicts. Sudan has been engaged in civil war for years.

Somalia largely fell apart as a country in the early 1990s, forcing international intervention that peaked with the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, where US forces were killed. Eritrea has long been a third-world, suffering country. Ethiopia has also had internal unrest.

Across the water in Yemen, the country has also been in civil war for years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in 2015 to prevent the Houthis from taking control of Aden. Yemen has been divided for much of the last century into North and South Yemen.

Egypt intervened in the 1960s, with Yemen divided again today between the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and the Saudi-backed Yemen government.

Many commentators see Israel’s move as strategic. It ostensibly puts Israel and the UAE on one side, sharing interests in this region. Meanwhile, states such as Turkey are situated on the other side.

However, nothing is that simplistic. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have agreed on Yemen. Egypt is unlikely to favor changes in the Horn of Africa and already has deep concerns about the Rapid Support Forces’ increased presence in Sudan and about a new dam in Egypt. Qatar and many countries oppose Israel’s move.

There's a good reason the Horn of Africa is weak

The issues in the Horn of Africa appear to revolve mostly around strategic questions. While it is true that having naval forces in this area or military assets seems important, the Houthis’ attacks on ships have shown that with relatively simple and cheap drones and missiles, shipping can be terrorized.

Somali pirates used to hijack boats by overwhelming them with mere skiffs and AK-47 automatic rifles.

The Horn of Africa is resource-poor, and there is a good reason many of its countries are weak states. As such, from a grand-strategic perspective, Israeli recognition may be less than the sum of its parts in this region.

It is true that many countries have interests in this area, including France and the US, Turkey and Iran, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, these interests have so far translated into only limited engagement. There are bigger fish to fry, as most countries already know.